Saturday, April 21, 2007

5K PREDICTOR

RUN: 5K / 33:35 / AVE PACE 10:48
MILE 1 = 11:11
MILE 2 = 10:51
MILE 3 = 10:28
MILE .1= 9:14

It was a perfect day for running! The temp. was around 50 and the sun was shining. I hate 5K races. But I wanted to get my one for the year out of the way now and see where I was at. My goal was to break 35:00. I was nervous if I could do that. My pace has been very slow with my long runs.

I wore my Garmin to keep an eye on my pace because I tend not to stay focused. The race started and I quickly fell to the back. I looked at my watch and I was at 11:08 pace. I felt like I couldn't settle in. After I passed one mile I looked at my pace and it was 13:40. I had lost focus. It was time to come out of the comfort zone and regroup. I keep and eye on my pace the rest of the way not to go over 11:00. I was shocked and happy at my time when I finished. Better than expected.

When I got home ,just out of curiosity, I plugged my time in some predictors to see what they said for my marathon. Here are the results:
PREDICTOR = MARATHON TIME
AGE GRADING = 5:17:26
VO2MAX = 5:15:53
RIEGEL FORMULA = 5:22:06
PURDY FORMULA = 6:03:20
MCMILLAN RUNNING = 5:27:24
Something to think about for sure. I am going with Purdy.

Waddling to plan my taper.....................

11 comments:

Vickie said...

I don't understand all the numbers, but one thing's for certain: you surpassed your 5k goal. Great job!

Reluctant Penguin said...

Sounds like you've done everything right to get ready for the Pig. Enjoy the taper.

Lisa - Slow & Steady said...

Great job with the 5K. WoooHooo

All those choices with the predictors...that's a wide rance (5:15-6:03). If I were predicting for myself, I'd go with the conservative one too

Flo said...

Excellent 5K!!!! WooooooHooooo!!!

48 minutes is a huge range. I would definitely stick with the conservative one. Enjoy the taper!

21stCenturyMom said...

Nice! You met your goal and that is a great 5K time.

With those predictors you have to be really careful not to burn out in the first half of the marathon and use the nutrition you know so you don't get sick (that IS the voice of experience talking).

You seem very ready for the Pig and I'd go with Purdy, too. Not just because of your 5K time but also because of your 20 miler.

You are so ready!

Mary Sunshine said...

Dear Waddler!

Congrats on crushing your 5K goal!

I love using race bracelets for marathons...You can set a goal time for each mile and adjust your pace a little if you are too fast or too slow relative to your plan.

For the Pig, I would suggest allowing for a little more time in miles 5-9 but in the last flat stretch on Eastern Ave, the garmin pacing can help you stay focused.

I will most likely be at mile 21 at the Fleet Feet cheering section. I'll keep a close eye out for you!

Mary

Kim said...

Awesome time! I have been reading your blog for awhile now and it is such an encouragement to me! Thanks!

Fe-lady said...

Very nicely done! Way to go!

Joe said...

Cool!! The whole concentration thing is huge, this is a good lesson. The Garmin is a help in that...partucularly in the first 5 miles of a race. After that you'll probably be in a rhythm.

The predictors are intereesting. It's a bit of an extrapolation to go straight from a 5K to a marathon. If you plugged in your recent half-marathon time as well, you might get a better feel. I have personally found McMillan's predictor a bit too aggressive. I have to add 6-10 minutes to that and I'm OK on the marathon time. But fun to toy with mentally!!

Hey, two weeks to go!!! You are set!!!

Dori said...

Wow, it's taper time already. I can't believe your race is only two weeks away. You've worked hard to get here and you're going to do great at the Pig. Will you sign up with a pace group, or just go on your own?

Irene said...

Nice job! I predict that you'll have a wonderful marathon day! I think you're definetly ready! I can't wait to read your post marathon blog entry! I'm excited for you!

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